Bank of Canada Rate Announcement Oct 29th, 2025

Amy Kinvig • October 29, 2025

Bank of Canada lowers policy rate to 2¼%.

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

October 29, 2025

The Bank of Canada today reduced its target for the overnight rate by 25 basis points to 2.25%, with the Bank Rate at 2.5% and the deposit rate at 2.20%.

With the effects of US trade actions on economic growth and inflation somewhat clearer, the Bank has returned to its usual practice of providing a projection for the global and Canadian economies in this Monetary Policy Report (MPR). Because US trade policy remains unpredictable and uncertainty is still higher than normal, this projection is subject to a wider-than-usual range of risks.

While the global economy has been resilient to the historic rise in US tariffs, the impact is becoming more evident. Trade relationships are being reconfigured and ongoing trade tensions are dampening investment in many countries. In the MPR projection, the global economy slows from about 3¼% in 2025 to about 3% in 2026 and 2027.

In the United States, economic activity has been strong, supported by the boom in AI investment. At the same time, employment growth has slowed and tariffs have started to push up consumer prices. Growth in the euro area is decelerating due to weaker exports and slowing domestic demand. In China, lower exports to the United States have been offset by higher exports to other countries, but business investment has weakened. Global financial conditions have eased further since July and oil prices have been fairly stable. The Canadian dollar has depreciated slightly against the US dollar.

Canada’s economy contracted by 1.6% in the second quarter, reflecting a drop in exports and weak business investment amid heightened uncertainty. Meanwhile, household spending grew at a healthy pace. US trade actions and related uncertainty are having severe effects on targeted sectors including autos, steel, aluminum, and lumber. As a result, GDP growth is expected to be weak in the second half of the year. Growth will get some support from rising consumer and government spending and residential investment, and then pick up gradually as exports and business investment begin to recover.

Canada’s labour market remains soft. Employment gains in September followed two months of sizeable losses. Job losses continue to build in trade-sensitive sectors and hiring has been weak across the economy. The unemployment rate remained at 7.1% in September and wage growth has slowed. Slower population growth means fewer new jobs are needed to keep the employment rate steady.

The Bank projects GDP will grow by 1.2% in 2025, 1.1% in 2026 and 1.6% in 2027. On a quarterly basis, growth strengthens in 2026 after a weak second half of this year. Excess capacity in the economy is expected to persist and be taken up gradually.

CPI inflation was 2.4% in September, slightly higher than the Bank had anticipated. Inflation excluding taxes was 2.9%. The Bank’s preferred measures of core inflation have been sticky around 3%. Expanding the range of indicators to include alternative measures of core inflation and the distribution of price changes among CPI components suggests underlying inflation remains around 2½%. The Bank expects inflationary pressures to ease in the months ahead and CPI inflation to remain near 2% over the projection horizon.

With ongoing weakness in the economy and inflation expected to remain close to the 2% target, Governing Council decided to cut the policy rate by 25 basis points. If inflation and economic activity evolve broadly in line with the October projection, Governing Council sees the current policy rate at about the right level to keep inflation close to 2% while helping the economy through this period of structural adjustment. If the outlook changes, we are prepared to respond. Governing Council will be assessing incoming data carefully relative to the Bank’s forecast.

The Canadian economy faces a difficult transition. The structural damage caused by the trade conflict reduces the capacity of the economy and adds costs. This limits the role that monetary policy can play to boost demand while maintaining low inflation. The Bank is focused on ensuring that Canadians continue to have confidence in price stability through this period of global upheaval.

Information note

The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is December 10, 2025. The Bank’s next MPR will be released on January 28, 2026.

Read the October 29th, 2025 Monetary Report

< Older Post Newer Post >

Amy Kinvig

What You Need to Know About Porting a Mortgage When Moving

By Amy Kinvig • September 30, 2026

Porting Your Mortgage: What You Need to Know Before You Rely on It Porting a mortgage means transferring your existing interest rate, remaining term, and outstanding balance from your current home to a new one when you sell and buy again. While some lenders—especially big banks—make porting sound simple, the reality is that porting a mortgage is often complex and far from guaranteed . It’s not a magic solution, and it doesn’t mean you automatically get to keep your old mortgage on your new home. In many ways, porting a mortgage feels like applying for a brand-new one—often with more conditions . Here’s why. 1. You Still Have to Re-Qualify Even though you already have the mortgage, the lender will reassess you. If you: Changed jobs Moved to a new city Are on probation Switched industries or income types …the lender may decline the port. Your previous approval does not carry over automatically. 2. The New Property Must Be Approved The lender also reassesses the new property . Just because they accepted your previous home as collateral doesn’t mean they’ll approve the next one. Expect: A new appraisal A review of the property’s condition Scrutiny around marketability and value If the lender isn’t comfortable with the property, the port can fail. 3. Property Values Rarely Line Up Perfectly Most moves involve a price difference. Buying a more expensive home: You’ll likely need additional funds at a blended rate, which can increase your payment. Buying a less expensive home: You may face a penalty for reducing the mortgage balance. Either scenario can affect your costs. 4. You Still Need a Down Payment Porting doesn’t mean you “swap houses” without cash. You still need: A down payment on the new purchase Closing costs Funds available at the right time This often surprises buyers. 5. Penalties Usually Still Apply (At First) Most lenders: Charge the full mortgage penalty when you sell Refund it only after the port is successfully completed If you’re relying on sale proceeds for your down payment, this temporary penalty can create a cash-flow issue. 6. Timelines Rarely Line Up Perfectly Real estate markets don’t cooperate. You might: Sell quickly but struggle to buy Find a home quickly but wait months to sell Closing dates rarely align, which complicates porting even further. 7. Port Periods Vary by Lender This is where the fine print matters. Depending on the lender, the port window may be: Same day only 30 days 90 days Up to 6 months If the port window is short, both transactions must close within that timeframe—or the port fails. Longer port periods offer flexibility, but also carry the risk of selling first and not finding a replacement property in time. The Bottom Line Porting your mortgage can make sense—especially if you have a strong rate and are buying a similar-priced home. But it is not guaranteed , and it comes with conditions, risks, and timing challenges. Portability is a feature, not a promise. Before you rely on it, it’s important to review all your options , including whether staying with your lender actually makes financial sense. If you’re planning to sell and buy, I’d be happy to walk you through the process, explain your options clearly, and help you decide whether porting is the right move—or if another strategy makes more sense.

What Mortgage Lenders Need to Know About Your Down Payment Source

By Amy Kinvig • September 23, 2026

Why the Source of Your Down Payment Matters More Than You Think When buying a home, most people focus on how much they need for a down payment. What often gets overlooked is that where the down payment comes from matters just as much to the lender . The source of your down payment affects approval, risk assessment, and how your mortgage is structured. Here’s why lenders care—and what you need to know. 1. Anti–Money Laundering Requirements Lenders aren’t just being cautious—they’re legally required to verify the source of your down payment. To comply with anti–money laundering regulations, lenders must document where every dollar of the down payment came from on every purchase. Acceptable Down Payment Sources Down payments can come from: Your own savings or investments Borrowed funds through an insured program (such as FlexDown) A gift from an immediate family member How You Prove the Source Personal savings: You’ll need bank statements showing the funds have been in your account for at least 90 days , or proof they were accumulated through payroll deposits or other acceptable sources. Borrowed funds: Any borrowed portion must be included in your debt service ratios , since you’re responsible for repayment. Gifted funds: A signed gift letter is required confirming the money is a true gift with no repayment obligation , along with proof the funds were deposited into your account. 2. Financial Suitability and Risk The source of your down payment also tells the lender a lot about your financial habits. Down payments coming from your own savings demonstrate: Positive cash flow The ability to save consistently Strong financial management This reassures lenders that you’re more likely to keep up with mortgage payments. If the down payment is borrowed or gifted, lenders may look more closely at the rest of your application to ensure the mortgage remains affordable. Why a Larger Down Payment Helps From a lender’s perspective, more equity equals lower risk. The more money you have invested in the property, the less likely you are to walk away from the mortgage. This reduces the lender’s exposure and can sometimes result in better terms. 3. Down Payment and Loan-to-Value (LTV) Your down payment directly establishes your loan-to-value ratio (LTV)—the percentage of the property’s value being financed. In Canada: Lenders can finance up to 95% of a property’s value The buyer must contribute at least 5% as a down payment Example: On a $400,000 purchase: Maximum mortgage = $380,000 Minimum down payment = $20,000 How the Source Affects LTV Property value must be genuine and independently supported. Lenders rely on appraisals and comparable sales—not artificial price inflation. If: The seller provides money back The buyer doesn’t bring the full down payment independently Funds move “behind the scenes” …the lender considers this a change to the LTV and may decline the mortgage. All financial details of the purchase must be fully disclosed. Non-disclosure is mortgage fraud , and lenders will not proceed if the numbers don’t align. Final Thoughts Lenders ask for detailed documentation about your down payment source for good reason—it affects legality, risk, and the structure of your mortgage. Understanding these rules upfront helps avoid delays, declined applications, and last-minute surprises. If you’d like to review your down payment options or talk through mortgage financing, feel free to connect anytime. I’d be happy to walk you through the process and help you plan with confidence.